There’s little doubt that Republicans have won the redistricting war started by Donald Trump, thanks in large part to favorable decisions from GOP-appointed judges on the US Supreme Court and state supreme courts.
Since last year, Republicans have drawn 16 new US House districts favoring their party, while Democrats have only been able to draw 6. That means, as a result of redistricting alone, Republicans have a 10-seat advantage heading into November. Obviously, that could make it significantly harder for Democrats to take back the House, despite Trump’s record-low approval ratings.
But even against these odds, Democrats could still come out ahead in the redistricting wars by 2028. According to an analysis by election experts Stephen Wolf and David Nir at The Downballot, over the next two years, Democrats could draw 21 new blue districts in 9 states with their own redistricting maps. Specifically, they could pick up four seats in New York, four in Virginia, three in Colorado, three in Wisconsin, two in Minnesota, two in New Jersey, and one each in Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon.
Many Democratic states were unable to draw new maps in time for the 2026 midterms because of constraints in their state constitutions. But over the next two years, Democrats should be more able and willing to fight back against Trump’s election rigging. The Supreme Court’s destruction of the Voting Rights Act makes this battle more urgent.
Yes, gerrymandering is bad for democracy. But to level the playing field, Democrats will have to fight fire with fire and maximize their power everywhere they can.
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Mother Jones is a nonprofit American progressive magazine that focuses on news, commentary, and investigative journalism on topics including politics, environment, human rights, health, healthcare and culture. Clara Jeffery serves as editor-in-chief of the magazine. Monika Bauerlein has been the CEO since 2015.
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