We’re calling it now: DFL candidates will handily win 17 state House and four Senate seats in this fall’s election.

It didn’t take a fancy forecasting system to make this prediction. No, that’s the number of Minnesota legislative races with no Republican candidate, making them so-called walkover wins for the DFL candidates.

No major party has had so few candidates running in a House and Senate election year since at least the 1990s, according to a MinnPost review of state voting data. In contrast, the DFL has names on every state House and Senate ballot.

Does the large candidate gap mean anything beyond easy wins for DFLers in those districts? Here’s what you should know.

Where are these walkover districts?

All but one district is in the Twin Cities or an inner-ring suburb. The phrase “sacrificial lamb” came up more than once in interviews for this piece, which should tell you how uncompetitive most of the races were in the last election. 

Calling them landslides doesn’t do them justice. In 62A, a Minneapolis district, Rep. Aisha Gomez won by an 80% margin in 2024.

Rep. Jamie Long won another Minneapolis district, 61B, by about 78%. His Republican opponent in 2024, perennial candidate Bob “Again” Carney Jr., opted for a U.S. Senate run this year instead of a rematch.

On the Senate side, Bobby Joe Champion in District 59 and Scott Dibble in District 61 are running in their second straight elections without Republican opponents. 

It’s no shocker to find out Republicans aren’t always enthused to run for office in deep blue Twin Cities districts. But there are also examples of districts going from somewhat competitive to walkovers.

Rep. Ethan Cha won races in 47B covering Woodbury with 53% of the vote in 2022 and 54% of the vote in 2024. He has no Republican challenger this year.

Then there’s the one walkover district outside of the Twin Cities metro. Rep. Luke Frederick of Mankato has no opponent in 18B.

His past election wins didn’t reach Minneapolis levels of uncompetitiveness, but they weren’t photo finishes, either. He won 56% of the votes in 2024 and 60% in 2022.

Related: Red state? Blue state? Here are the races that will likely determine party control at the Minnesota Legislature

What does he make of local Republicans sitting 2026 out? Between the DFL having candidates in every state legislative race and DFL voters turning out in high numbers in the primary election, he suspects it’s a sign of an enthusiasm gap between the parties. 

“Both of those pieces combined illustrate that there’s a general frustration of what people see from the Republican party in general, specifically at the federal level,” he said.

President Trump’s flailing economy isn’t helping Minnesota Republicans, he said, and Operation Metro Surge rallied opposition. 

“There was a lot of coalition building with that,” he said. “And that is now transcending into or transitioning into elections, allowing people to organize and advocate to make sure that we are better positioned to respond should something like that happen in the future.”

Dan Peterson of the Redwood County DFL Party has noticed signs of an enthusiasm gap in his area. His county had one of the 10 biggest margins of support for Trump in 2024.

It was a harsh place to walk as a Democrat in a parade not that long ago, he said. 

“People didn’t want to give their kids Democrat candy,” he said. “Now it’s more calm and polite.”  

What are the implications of this gap in candidates?

The only other recent House and Senate election year in which either party had a full slate of candidates was 2010. A full-strength Republican ticket proceeded to trounce the DFL.

After gaining 25 seats in the House and 16 in the Senate, the GOP secured majorities in both chambers for the first time in four decades. In comparison, the DFL had a relatively low candidate participation year.

Democrats don’t have a decades-long precedent to overturn this year. But if this year’s candidate participation is a sign of enthusiasm, like it was in 2010, it could signal that another DFL trifecta is on the way.

Enthusiasm can be hard to gauge, but there’s a clear discrepancy between how much money the Minnesota DFL and GOP have on hand, said Steven Schier, a political science professor emeritus at Carleton College. The GOP’s lack of money may have hindered candidate recruitment more than usual as the party consistently runs fewer candidates than the DFL. 

Although Minnesota’s GOP and its allies aren’t fighting on all fronts, Schier said the party seems to be targeting the most competitive districts. If that’s the strategy, it has drawbacks.

“Avoiding candidates may help with targeted legislative results, but it doesn’t help statewide races,” he said.

Every little nudge on voters can make the difference on turnout. Having no House or Senate candidate campaigning in a district may keep voters home unless a statewide candidate inspires them, Schier said.

Frederick is still knocking on doors in the Mankato area despite having no opponent this year. The difference is some of those doors are in his neighboring district, where a fellow DFLer is trying to unseat an incumbent. 

Unlike Frederick’s 18B, 18A is a swing district. He’s freed up a bit more this year to help Leah Hanson in her run against Republican Rep. Erica Schwartz. “Probably about once or twice per week I’m out with Leah going door knocking with her,” Frederick said.

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