To help keep our finger on the pulse of this year’s elections we are tracking poll results, fundraising data and forecasted election outcomes for Minnesota’s U.S. presidential race as well as the races for U.S. Senate and our eight seats in the U.S. House.

We will update this page when new data is released. Note that we vet each poll and only include credible public polls conducted in good faith. We do not include polls released by campaigns or related interest groups.

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U.S. President

Background: Minnesota has the nation’s longest streak among all states for voting for the Democrat for President. A Republican has not won the presidential race in Minnesota since 1972, when Republican President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee George McGovern by 5.5 percentage points. In 2020, then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 7.1 percentage points over then-Republican President Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump also lost the state, but only by 1.5 percentage points.

The latest polls: While Biden has yet to trail Trump in any of the five polls taken in Minnesota, Biden’s margin in the state is very slim. The two most recent polls, done by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP, WDIO and KAAL, both found Biden ahead of Trump by only two percentage points. That is is well within the poll’s 4.3 percentage point “credibility interval.” The latest poll also found that 5 percent of Minnesota’s likely voters remain undecided, and another 9 percent are planning to vote for someone other than Biden or Trump.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the Presidential race for Minnesota’s 10 electoral college votes as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat

• Inside Elections: Leans Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Leans Democrat

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

U.S. Senate

Background: Incumbent DFLer Amy Klobuchar is seeking reelection to the seat she has occupied since 2007. She won her last election, in 2018, by a 24 percentage point margin.

Prior to the Minnesota Republican Convention in mid-May, the GOP’s presumed challenger to Klobuchar was Navy veteran Joe Fraser, who was running with the encouragement of prominent Republicans in Washington. Delegates to the convention, however, endorsed Royce White, a podcaster and former professional basketball player.

The latest polls: Klobuchar has maintained a comfortable 14 to 17 percentage point lead in the four polls conducted to date, all by SurveyUSA on behalf KSTP, WDIO and KAAL.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat

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Congressional District 1

Background: In 2022 Republican Rep. Brad Finstad prevailed by 11.5 percentage points in an open race against DFL challenger Jeff Ettinger. This year Finstad faces DFLer Rachel Bowman, who touts herself as a “Rochester native … a former local elected official on the Rochester Township Board … a former Assistant County Attorney … [and] most importantly, a mom.”

This southern Minnesota district — which includes regional centers Albert Lea, Mankato, Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic) and Worthington — has been represented by a Republican since 2019 when the seat was vacated by current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (DFL).

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the first congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD1 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 2

Background: This district stretches south from just outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul down to Northfield, including all of Dakota, Le Suer and Scott counties and parts of Rice and Washington, remains a potential swing district. Incumbent DFLer Angie Craig has now held the seat for three terms, after flipping the seat a successful challenge then-Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in 2018. In 2022, Craig was reelected by a 5 percentage point margin over Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.

Two Republicans are currently vying to challenge Craig: criminal defense attorney Tayler Rahm, who was officially endorsed by the district’s GOP in late April, and former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who filed to run in the upcoming August primary.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the second congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD2 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat

• Inside Elections: Leans Democrat 

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Leans Democrat

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 3

Background: DFL Rep. Dean Phillips has held this seat — which includes many of Minneapolis’s northern, western and southern suburbs — since flipping it from Republican Erik Paulsen in 2018. The seat is now open, since Phillips backed out to mount a now-discontinued run for president.

Despite the fact that Phillips was reelected by a 19 percentage point margin in 2022, Republicans are hoping to flip the district. Tad Jude, a former Democrat who served in the Minnesota Legislature and later as a county commissioner and judge, was endorsed by the district’s GOP in late April. State Sen. Kelly Morrison, a physician, is the DFL’s candidate.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the third congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD3 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 4

Background: The 4th Congressional District, which includes St. Paul and its suburbs to the north and east, has been held by DFL Rep. Betty McCollum since 2001, making her the longest-serving member of the state’s federal delegation. In 2022, she prevailed over Republican challenger May Lor Xiong by 35 percentage points.

Xiong, a public school teacher and “military mother” of two, and Mike Casey, a military veteran, are headed toward the August Republican Party primary en route to challenging McCollum in the November general election.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the fourth congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a strong DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD4 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 5

Background: Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, which includes Minneapolis and its immediate western suburbs, has been held by DFLer Ilhan Omar since 2018 when she became the first refugee, first Somali-American and, along with Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, first Muslim woman elected to Congress.

In 2022, Omar prevailed in the general election by 50 percentage points. In this heavily DFL-leaning district she faced a more challenging threat from former Minneapolis council member Don Samuels, winning the 2022 primary by only 2 percentage points.

Samuels is challenging Omar in the DFL primaries again this year, and other candidates are also planning to file to run before the June 4 cutoff.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the fifth congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, but remained the state’s strongest DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns. Iraq-born journalist and activist Dalia al-Aqidi is the Republican challenger.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD5 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 6

Background: Central Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District — which include Twin Cities’ western and northern exurbs and St. Cloud — has been held by Republican Tom Emmer since 2015. In 2022, Emmer prevailed over DFL challenger Jeanne Hendricks by 44 percentage points.

Hendricks, “a nurse anesthetist, mom of two adult children, and community activist” won the DFL endorsement in May. In addition, Austin Winkelman, who is currently pursing undergraduate studies in business, formally filed his candidacy as a DFL candidate for the seat. Military veteran and union worker Jay Reeves may also run in an August primary for the chance to challenge Emmer in the general election.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the sixth congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD6 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 7

Background: Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of the rural western third of the state, was flipped from long-time DFL Rep. Colin Peterson by Republican Michelle Fischbach in 2020. Even before Fishbach won the seat, the district leaned right, voting for President Trump by a wide margin in 2016.

In 2022 Fischbach was reelected with a 39 percentage point margin. She faces a primary challenge from businessman Stephen Boyd. Neither was endorsed at the spring GOP district convention.

A DFL challenger has yet to emerge this year.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the seventh congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining the state’s strongest Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and leaning slightly more favorable for the GOP.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD7 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Congressional District 8

Background: Minnesota’s Iron Range district extends well beyond northeastern mining towns to include Duluth to the east and the northern Twin Cities exurbs to the south. In 2018, Republican Pete Stauber successfully flipped this long-time DFL stronghold in a 6 percentage point open-seat victory over DFLer Joe Radinovich.

Stauber has successfully defended the seat in the two elections since then, including a 14 point victory over DFL challenger Jen Schultz in 2022. Schultz, a former state legislator, is challenging Stauber again this year.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the eighth congressional district changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: As of May 22, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD8 as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican

Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 

CD4 | CD5 | CD6 | CD7 | CD8

Curious about Minnesota’s state legislative races? For a detailed look at the 2022 election outcomes see: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/mn-house-senate-election-2022

Collected from Minnesota Public Radio News. View original source here.